There is no guarantee for ETBU to make a second straight NCAA appearance. The only guarantee would be if the Tigers win the American Southwest Conference tournament this weekend and grab the conference's automatic bid. But there is also the chance of course that ETBU will receive an at-large bid, like they did last season.
These are the kinds of situations that give players, coaches and fans fits because there are just relatively few spots to fill. What we do know is that the Tigers have spent a great deal of the season ranked No. 2 in the nation, which is good. ETBU is recognized nationally for its traditionally strong softball program, which is also good. And the Tigers this week are ranked No. 4 in the NCAA West Region rankings, which goes a long way in determining which teams are invited to regionals next week. That is also good, seeing as most regionals will field anywhere from 6-8 teams -- meaning if you're fourth, even with my crazy math, you've got a good shot at being selected.
ETBU has a 21-9 record this season against "in-region" opponents. That "in-region" thing is a little vague because it includes records against ASC rivals such as Louisiana College and Mississippi College -- who are listed by the NCAA as being the East Region. ETBU and Texas-Tyler are listed in the West Region, but their games against LC and MC count as in-region.
ETBU went 4-4 against Texas-Tyler and Louisiana College, with UTT ranked No. 1 in the West and LC ranked No. 1 in the East Region. Against teams that are regionally ranked from around the country, ETBU is 7-7 on the year. That's also a pretty good sign for the Tigers.
The bottom line is that the Tigers could make things a lot easier for themselves by winning the program's first ASC title since 2004 this weekend. That is the only sure way to get invited to an NCAA First-Round Tournament next week.
Here are the complete West Region rankings for this week:
- 1. Texas-Tyler (35-5 overall, 31-5 in-region)
- 2. Claremont Mudd-Scripps (32-6, 28-4 in-region)
- 3. Linfield (35-5 overall, 33-5 in-region)
- 4. East Texas Baptist (29-9 overall, 21-9 in-region)
- 5. Redlands (30-10 overall, 27-6 in-region)
- 6. Southwestern (26-10 overall, 25-10 in-region)
- 7. Willamette (27-11 overall, 21-8 in-region)
- 8. Pacific Lutheran (22-14 overall, 22-14 in-region)
It must be remembered that most likely, Louisiana College will be sent with either UT Tyler or ETBU, or both, to a first-round site. Last season all three ASC teams competed in the ETBU-hosted regional at Taylor Field. So in that scenario, if all three receive postseason bids, you'd have to guess the NCAA would send all three somewhere together again.
The dicey part is if there is an upset of, say, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps in the Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference tournament this weekend. The Athenas, who also were at the ETBU regional last season, host that tournament. Redlands, ranked just behind ETBU in the region, is the No. 2 seed.
Linfield has already clinched an NCAA berth by winning the regular season Northwest Conference championship. The NWC, which also includes Pacific Lutheran and Willamette in the regional rankings, has no conference tournament, so if PLU and Willamette get in it will be via NCAA invites.
And Southwestern won the Southern Collegeiate Athletic Conference title this season in just the second year of the program. The SCAC has no conference tournament, either, so Southwestern is in the NCAA Tournament with an automatic bid.
Okay, what does all this mean? Let's assume ETBU, UT Tyler and Louisiana College get bids, along with the automatics -- Linfield and Southwestern -- already mentioned. A big guess here is that if UT Tyler or Louisiana College is selected to host, you could see a regional of UT Tyler, ETBU, Louisiana College, Southwestern, Linfield, C-M-S and Redlands.
Another kink to consider possibly is if either UMHB, Concordia or Hardin-Simmons wins the ASC Tournament and grabs the ASC automatic. That would also presumably kick one of the above mentioned at-larges out of the regional, perhaps. Or, the NCAA could break up the entire bunch and send the Texas schools to the West Coast somewhere and send LC or to the Midwest, which it's done before.
Bottom line is nothing is settled or even knowable until after this weekend. There are still too many chips to fall. But it is fun to talk about.
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